The global economy generally surprised to the upside, with steady but slowing growth, as consensus broadened over a soft-landing narrative. However, as tailwinds to the consumer fade and monetary policy lags catch up, we can’t discount the possibility of a recession completely yet. Inflation continued trending to target levels, despite proving somewhat stickier in services, allowing central banks to move towards easing policy.
While 20 of 37 major central banks are now in easing mode, the Fed pushed back its dot plot and normalized rates in the medium term will be markedly higher than what we were accustomed to prior to this cycle. Beyond short-term volatility in the data, we recommend looking at long-term trends in a new regime marked by active inflation and interest rates.
This document from our macro view workshop discuss the global and regional economic outlook, along with our house view on market & investment outlooks, and geographic opportunities.
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